Poker games have all kinds of questions that you can't answer until after the game is played. Who's got the best hand at the table? Who turned a lousy hand into a good one? Who used their chips wisely? Who bluffed, and who called it? Who's folding? Find out here and now, in the 2010 TUFF Draft Wrapup!
1.01 Green Bay Ground Hogs - RB Ryan Mathews |
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After the conclusion of the NFL Draft, the Green Bay Ground Hogs were solid at just about every spot--no QB depth issues, neither of their starting running backs ended up in less favorable job situations, and they have a good set of wide receivers. But rather than stay at #10, they dealt that pick, their #1 pick next year and one of last year's breakout stars, WR Miles Austin, to get this pick. GB originally planned to take C.J. Spiller (to handcuff to Marshawn Lynch). But when the #1 pick was still Tennessee's, Paul Rush had posted a poll asking who the owners expected would go first, and the majority answered Mathews, who is arguably the best inside runner available in the draft and doesn't have to share carries with anyone. This has to go down as one of the most brilliant moves in the history of the TUFF Draft. Now next time someone posts a poll like that, you'll have to wonder if the person posting it wants to move up themselves... and you may be reluctant to answer it, too.
Thing is, if I'm Green Bay, I stay at #10. The Ground Hogs were in a very good position to "just take the best available player," mainly because so many teams above them had either QB or RB needs, meaning that a very good value could be had at #10. To move up, they had to compromise depth at WR, and you never know, next year's draft could be rich with talent (where trading away the Ground Hogs' #1 pick next year is concerned).
Update 9-19-10: Here's Paul Rush's commentary on his pick: Firstly I think the 1.10 is a real crapshoot this year... there is no one I would have felt really comfortable about drafting in that position. Secondly I think next year's pick is going to be a pretty late one as well. And thirdly, although I like Austin, Dallas drafting Bryant must have a negative impact on his dynasty value. I figure I have a serviceable WR3 in a mixture of Braylon Edwards and Josh Morgan. With (RB Pierre) Thomas being rather injury prone and (RB Ryan) Grant no spring chicken I though the chance to get a young stud RB was too good to pass."
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1.02 Carolina Convicts - RB C.J. Spiller  |
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Carolina finally filled the #1 RB spot with Beanie Wells last year, but TUFF continues to require two starting RBs and it's time to fill that other RB spot. Spiller stunned many people in January 2009 when he decided to stay for his senior year. But that way, he got to showcase himself as a feature back (whereas in 2007 and 2008, he had to split the load with James Davis). Jeff Hannan did very well to take Spiller despite the fact that he presently has to compete with Fred Jackson and possibly Marshawn Lynch for carries. Why? ESPN.com's Christopher Harris puts it best: "There's a reason C.J. Spiller is the most coveted rusher in this year's draft: 21 of his 52 career college touchdowns were 50 yards or longer. That's sick." Job situations change quickly; talent generally doesn't. You know the Bills did not spend the ninth overall pick on Spiller--a pick that they could have used on a quarterback or an offensive tackle--if they didn't plan to use him.
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1.03 Carolina Convicts - WR Dez Bryant |
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What else do the Cons need? At WR, the Cons have Roddy White, and that's pretty much it. (Darrius Heyward-Bey doesn't count unless he catches the rock consistently.) Enter Bryant, easily the best wideout this year's draft has to offer. In 2008, Oklahoma State QBs passed for 25 touchdowns; Bryant caught 19 of them. His 2009 season got cut short after he misled NCAA investigators about his relationship with Deion Sanders, and the lying about it (not the relationship itself) is what led to him being declared ineligible for the rest of that season. His draft stock dropped even more after a subpar workout this spring that raised concerns with teams about his work habits. "Bryant is going to need a strong mentor on and off the field to be successful," says CBSSports.com analyst (and former Redskins/Texans GM) Charlie Casserly. He was reportedly out of shape at minicamp but (according to Tim McMahon of ESPN) has been catching everything, including a few spectacular plays. The Cons nabbed this pick from Houston in 2008 in a trade for RBs Earnest Graham and Carnell "Cadillac" Williams. And with Spiller and Bryant, they filled two holes in their starting lineup.
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1.04 Baltimore Brown Clowns - RB Jahvid Best |
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What Dale Earnhardt Sr. was to the Daytona 500, that's what Baltimore's been to TUFF--rotten luck at almost every turn (save for winning the TUFF S*** Bowl last year). They were the top-scoring team last year, yet they didn't make the playoffs. Now, they have two 30-something RBs (Thomas Jones and Brian Westbrook) who no longer have starting jobs, so this is as good an opportunity as any to fill the void. Jahvid Best is a little small at 5'10", 193 lb., but what the heck, speed kills and he had the fastest 40yd and 3-cone drill among RBs at the Scouting Combine. "Despite his small size, he's an instinctive runner who blows by opponents if given a crease," says Todd McShay.
Impressions con: He missed the last four games of 2009 due to a frightening concussion he suffered when he fell on the back of his head leaping into the end zone. Something else about his 2009 season bothers me, too (although this could be another case of me overanalyzing stats): Two of his best games came against Maryland and Washington State, who rang up a sorry combined record of 3-21. Another very good game came against non-conference creampuff Eastern Washington. In the six other games he played, his ypc was a more pedestrian 4.2. Did the Pac-10's best teams figure out how to contain him?
Baltimore got this pick from Dallas, along with WR Malcolm Kelly, for their 2009 first-rounder. But to be fair to Dallas, it wasn't a total rip-off for them; they dealt that first-rounder they got from Baltimore, plus TE Jeremy Shockey, to Arizona to get the pick that they used to select RB LeSean McCoy.
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1.05 Houston Tethered Swimmers - RB Ben Tate |
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"Absolutely Ben Tate is the pick here. I need RB's, and I need them now," Jeff Rathburn told me as the draft began, and that's why he moved up to get Tate. The Texans are fed up with Steve Slaton's fumbling problems (in Weeks 1-8 last year, he had 7 fumbles in 110 carries, 5 of which were lost). By contrast, Tate had 4 fumbles in 263 carries last year--far from perfect, but obviously much better than 7/110. Mike Lombardi (NFL Network, National Football Post) predicts that Ben Tate will contend for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, calling him "the right back for the Texans' system" in that he can "hit the hole with a burst and is a one-cut runner." Tate was the main tailback at Auburn for only one season; he backed up Kenny Irons in 2006, then shared time with other backs in 2007-08. His stock shot up at the Combine where he had the top "Speed Score" (which takes both his weight and his 40yd dash time into account) among running backs. Weighing 220 pounds, he ran a 4.43 40.
One more thing: Tate's name is also what you'd get if Buckwheat were to try to say "Penn State."
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1.06 New Orleans Chocolate City - QB Sam Bradford
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New Orleans wanted to move down from this spot, but couldn't get the offer it wanted, so they went with the best available player here. Prior to the 2009 college football season, Mel Kiper said of Sam Bradford, "He's one of the smartest quarterbacks you'll ever see. He's 6-foot-4 -- ideal height -- and his accuracy is off the charts. That's a key to being successful in the NFL. He's mobile enough -- when he has to move, he can move -- but he's not pressured, so we don't see him do it. So that's something you won't see until he gets to the NFL, because he has a great offensive line at Oklahoma." Gil Brandt called his Pro Day workout the best since Troy Aikman 21 years ago. Since taking Bradford, Tommy Hartdegen has curiously been talking about trading his current starter, Tony Romo, even though he's better off letting Bradford serve as Romo's backup (the Buffalo Bills quarterbacks are the fantasy equivalent of cardboard cutouts anyway).
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1.07 San Diego Slewage - RB Montario Hardesty
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San Diego took Hardesty because it was the best way to solidify the #2 running back spot in their starting lineup. (The Seattle Seahawks screwed the Slewage by trading for LenDale White and Leon Washington; fortunately, the Slewage also have Jerome Harrison, Hardesty's handcuff in Cleveland.) Hardesty has only had one full season as an every-down back in college, and that was in Lane Kiffin's zone-blocking system (the same one that gave Justin Fargas his only 1,000-yard season in 2007, back when Kiffin was the head coach of the Oakland Raiders). But the new Cleveland Browns regime, headed by new president Mike Holmgren, has spoken. The Browns' new GM, Tom Heckert, said that he considers Hardesty "a potential feature back."
San Diego also got back their second-round pick by trading down from 1.05.
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1.08 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - RB Jonathan Dwyer 
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When this year began, it was considered a foregone conclusion that Jonathan Dwyer would be the #1 overall pick by the Tennessee Taz Devils. The stats he put up (2,790 yards and 26 rushing touchdowns in 2008 and 2009 combined) seemed to back that up. But under the microscope that is the Scouting Combine, he wasn't able to answer the following question: Is he for real or the product of Georgia Tech's "triple option" offense (where he lined up just three yards off the line of scrimmage, making it hard for scouts to gauge his vision and instincts)? Weight and conditioning issues were the main reasons why his draft stock fell so badly. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported after the draft that several teams had removed Dwyer from their boards because of an undisclosed medical condition. Every NFL team that needed a running back passed him up, and he fell all the way to the 188th pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that (even after the departure of Willie Parker in free agency) is well-stocked at running back.
Dwyer didn't fall so far in TUFF, where running backs are in high demand. The Tampa Bay Meat Goats' current #2 running back is Clinton Portis, who is 28, already has nearly 2,200 carries over his career, and will have to share carries with Larry Johnson and/or Parker. And Dwyer may be a candidate for goal-line carries in Pittsburgh. Still, Dwyer is the first "high risk, high reward" pick of the draft because, in addition to the weight and conditioning issues and the possible medical issue, Paul Granholm also passed up a number of wide receivers, along with one quarterback I thought they'd take.
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1.09 Detroit Vipers - QB Jimmy Clausen
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Clausen improved in a number of key metrics in 2008 and 2009--completion percentage, touchdown to INT ratio, and yards per attempt. Mel Kiper praised him as a "polished QB at his best when the game is on the line." One advantage that he has over Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow is that he's worked under center in a pro-style offense, not a spread offense.
He arrives in Detroit on a team that otherwise would have no QBs available to start when the Pittsburgh Steelers' QBs are off (which, this year, is Week 5; the Vipers had the same issue in Week 8 last year). But need for QB depth wasn't the only reason Detroit took him here. A number of different sources--Frank Coyle's Draft Insiders Digest, USA Today, and NFLDraftScout.com among them--had Clausen in their top 15 overall pro prospects (including offensive linemen and defensive players). Once you exclude those non-TUFF players, Clausen is ranked third in all three sources, making him easily the best available player.
Don't get me wrong, Clausen's not perfect yet. One thing you don't see in the stats that Todd McShay points out: Clausen was at his best when he was able to throw to the outside, rather than down the middle. Two things bothered CBSSports.com's Charlie Casserly: He forced the ball when he got in the red zone and tended to leave the pocket too early. Bottom line, this pick was a case of being able to take the best available player and filling a serious need at the same time. Thank you, Paul, for passing Clausen up at #8 (I thought for sure you'd take him to handcuff to current Panthers starter Matt Moore, and by so doing, solidify your QB depth).
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1.10 Tennessee Taz Devils - WR Demaryius Thomas
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Tennessee had planned to nab Dwyer at this point, but they won't mind taking another product of his alma mater, Georgia Tech. The Taz Devils started out 0-8 last year and one reason was that, aside from Santonio Holmes (and later in the season, rookie Mike Wallace), none of their receivers produced a whole lot. Since then, Holmes himself has had a turbulent offseason (already suspended for 4 games for violating the league's substance abuse policy).
Demaryius Thomas has the size and tools to be an NFL wideout, but they were mostly hidden in the Rambling Wreck's run-first offense. It didn't help that, like Calvin Johnson before him, the QB throwing the rock to him sucked. Also, Mike Gilbert (rotoexperts.com) notes that Thomas "wasn't running anything resembling a traditional route tree. He needs about two years to learn that stuff, but the Broncos need him to produce immediately." (And do they ever, having traded Brandon Marshall to Miami last month.)
On the other hand, ESPN's KC Joyner found one factor that favors Thomas' future as an NFL wideout: Those who put up a YPA (yards per attempt) of at least 10.0 have a better chance of succeeding in the NFL than those who don't. Thomas' YPA was 15.9. (By contrast, Darrius Heyward-Bey's was a pathetic 6.8.) (Joyner's article on the subject can be found on page 84 of the May 3, 2010 issue of ESPN: The Magazine, or if you have an ESPN.com Insider account, go here.) After adding Miles Austin (in the trade with Green Bay) and now Thomas, the Taz should have a vastly improved wide receiver corps.
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1.11 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - WR Golden Tate
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At 5'11", 195 lb., Tate is very similar in size to Jets WR Santonio Holmes, and a number of people have compared him to Panthers WR Steve Smith. His job situation with the Seahawks, already looking very good due to Deion Branch's offseason knee surgery, got even better with the news that T.J. Houshmandzadeh had recently undergone sports hernia surgery. With the BIG PAPAS, Tate joins a wide receiver corps whose only consistent producer is Reggie Wayne. Roy Williams has been a disappointment ever since Pittsburgh traded for him. In the meantime, they've had to sign guys who didn't produce much last year, if at all--like Patrick Turner, Dwayne Jarrett, Kevin Ogletree and Donte Stallworth--in hopes that maybe they can produce. Tate's no "maybe." He could be in Pittsburgh's starting lineup right out of the box.
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1.12 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - QB Tim Tebow
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Tampa Bay address its QB depth with its second pick, and it's yet another "high risk, high reward" pick because Tebow, in terms of adjusting to playing quarterback the NFL way, is as raw as QB prospects get. The experts just don't agree on the first sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy. ESPN Monday Night Football analyst (and former NFL head coach) Jon Gruden is big on him: "He's the 'wildcat' who can throw. Most of the teams that have the wildcat back there, it's Ronnie Brown, it's Jerious Norwood, it's whoever you want to say it is. This guy here is 250 pounds of concrete cyanide, man. And he throws well enough at any level to play quarterback." Draft Countdown's Scott Wright begs to differ: "Whether it be his throwing motion, footwork, taking snaps from under center, reading coverages or going through progressions, there is just a laundry list of things he will have to work on." Well, Tebow's been working on those things and put forth an impressive workout that featured better footwork and delivery, undoubtedly raising his draft stock in the process. He's not the first QB who needed to fix his mechanics upon arriving in the NFL--remember Philip Rivers?--and he won't be the last. Gruden says of the adjustments Tebow has made: "He has made tremendous improvements, and if you know Tim Tebow and his work ethic, that's what you come to expect." Intangibles are a big reason why Josh McDaniels took him over Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy; he wants to create a strong locker room rooted in team-first principles.
Tebow's job situation is extremely interesting. Both of the Broncos quarterbacks ahead of him--Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn--become free agents after 2010. The big question is, how quickly, and how well, will Tebow develop when all is said and done? For that matter, how well will that job situation hold up? (Josh McDaniels is pinning his coaching future to Tebow in a big way.) And how much time can the Meat Goats' backup QBs (Delhomme, Moore, Feeley) buy? (My guess is, not nearly enough. Why the Browns gave $7M in guaranteed money to Delhomme is beyond me.) Tampa Bay is passing up wide receiver help yet again here, which makes the risk in this selection that much greater.
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1.13 Indianapolis Hoosier Daddy's - RB Toby Gerhart
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Indy enters 2010 with the same lineup that came within a missed Ryan Longwell extra point of winning their first AFC title. In particular, none of their vaunted three-headed running attack (MJD, Frank Gore and now Ray Rice) got screwed out of carries by their respective NFL teams. Wide receiver is a need and I'm sure Indy was hoping WR Golden Tate would fall to them.
Sure, Gerhart didn't wind up in a good situation like that which Cleveland or New England might have offered. He's spelling Adrian Peterson at the moment. But considering the lack of depth in this year's RB pool, this may not be a bad pick. Prior becoming a Viking three years ago, "All Day" had injuries at Oklahoma. The chance of getting hurt never goes away. And besides, the 232-lb. Gerhart opened some eyes with a 15-TD season in 2008. Then he made eyes pop out with his 2009 season, when he scored 26 TDs (including 13 in the final four games). He had 178 yards and 3 TD on 29 carries in last November's surprise rout of USC.
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1.14 Minnesota Fats - WR Dexter McCluster
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The Fats started 1-7, but then they won 6 straight and made it to the playoffs for the first time ever. And they don't have any gaping holes in their lineup (assuming Johnny Knox can fill in as the #3 WR). What to do? Oh yeah, look for the best available player. McCluster has been compared to Percy Harvin and he may spend time in the NFL as a slot receiver or a kick returner. Guys like Harvin, Darren Sproles and DeSean Jackson have shown that size doesn't always matter when it comes to playing in the NFL. Minnesota needed better WR depth and McCluster can deliver.
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1.15 Tennessee Taz Devils - TE Jermaine Gresham
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Tennessee has needed a tight end ever since the Decline and Fall of Randy McMichael. And son of a gun, the best one falls here. I thought Gresham would declare for the draft over a year ago after he starred in a losing cause for Oklahoma in the 2009 BCS Championship (8 rec, 62 yds, and both of the Sooners' TDs). He didn't, and he paid dearly because he tore his knee early in the 2009 season. Still, Gresham instantly becomes the best tight end the Cincinnati Bengals have had since Tony McGee in the mid-1990s. Judging Gresham's potential there based on the poor production of previous Bengals' TEs would be as foolish as expecting Carson Palmer to not turn out any better than David Klingler or Akili Smith when the Bengals drafted Palmer in 2003.
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1.16 Dallas Junglehawgs - QB Colt McCoy
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I actually like this pick given this point in the draft and how shallow this year's QB pool was. I say this because (as with Tim Tebow) it will take time to find out how McCoy develops. Dallas already has Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell and those two should buy the Junglehawgs just enough time to see how McCoy turns out. McCoy played in the same conference and spread offense as Sam Bradford and had more wins than Bradford and Jimmy Clausen combined. But people keep questioning his size and arm strength. Mel Kiper says, "I'd compare him to a Jake Plummer. He doesn't have a big arm, he doesn't have a big body, he can run but he's not some kind of elite athlete." People knocked Plummer, Chad Pennington and last year's Super Bowl MVP, Drew Brees, on the size factor and all three became productive NFL quarterbacks.
There are two factors to be concerned about: McCoy's ability to read defenses instead of relying on the coaches for the play call; the other is his sidearm delivery. But he's strong in the area of intangibles.
Here's a bit of trivia Mike Scott let slip the other day: He coached against McCoy back when McCoy was the QB for Jim Ned High School in Tuscola, Texas.
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2.01 San Diego Slewage - WR Arrelious Benn
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San Diego is looking to strengthen its wide receiver corps and moved up to get Arrelious Benn. Benn's 2009 season may look like a big step backward from 2008, but you could chalk that up to an ankle injury and subpar QB play. Cons: A lack of speed and quickness. Pros: He loves to fight for the ball, and Tampa Bay presents a good job situation (Antonio Bryant is gone, Michael Clayton is reportedly on the trading block, and Maurice Stovall never developed as he should have).
I was at an ESPN.com online chat on Saturday when one guy said, "Rounds 1-3 is ordering off a menu, Rounds 4-7 are a buffet." Using that analogy, in the TUFF Draft, Round 1 is ordering off a menu. Rounds 3 and 4 are a buffet. Round 2 is kind of a mix of the two, depending on how much talent there is. This year, I think the menu ended at 2.01 and the buffet began at 2.02.
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2.02 Carolina Convicts - WR Brandon LaFell
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LaFell considered leaving after 2008 but decided to stay for 2009 with the hope that he could establish himself as a #1 "big play" receiver. Well, he didn't exactly set the world on fire. He had inconsistent hands in college and dropped several passes on the first day of minicamp. A number of web sites say he has lapses in concentration. To be fair, the Carolina Panthers present a good opportunity for him, and he was among the first of the big group of WRs that went in Rounds 3 and 4 of the NFL Draft. I just like this next guy better...
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2.03 Detroit Vipers - WR Taylor Price
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The third round of the NFL Draft presented a plethora of potential starting wide receivers. The one that really stands out for me is Price, for two reasons: 4.40 speed and he's a potential replacement for 33-year-old Randy Moss (who may have anywhere from one to a few seasons left, depending on who you talk to). He could be a guy who plays way better in the pros than he did in college. He played at Ohio University, whose running game was lousy (3.4ypc in 2009) and the Bobcats couldn't get a pass attack going, either. And his QBs weren't that great to begin with. But he got to shine during Senior Bowl week and at the Combine. Price also brings excellent vision and a team-first work ethic to the table. While at Ohio, he even stayed after practice to learn what he could from his WR coach about NFL route coverages and concepts. On top of all that, due to the terrible knee injury Wes Welker suffered in January, Price could conceivably crack the starting lineup.
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2.04 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - WR Marshawn "Mardy" Gilyard
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Son of a bleep! I was hoping Gilyard would drop to 2.09. A couple of years ago, Todd McShay said, "Gilyard is an emerging talent with outstanding speed to stretch the field vertically, and he is also one of college football's premier return men." He's similar in size to teammate Donnie Avery, but not quite as fast (he did run 40 times of 4.44 and 4.51 at his Pro Day). What Gilyard does well is get yards after the catch. He's also dangerous when returning kicks, and the Rams will use him for that as well. In the 2010 Senior Bowl, he led all receivers with 103 yards and a touchdown.
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2.05 Green Bay Ground Hogs - RB James Starks
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Green Bay plays it safe here with a handcuff pick. Starks ran like a future star when healthy, but his injury history (including a shoulder injury that caused him to miss 2009) is why he slipped in Round 6 in the NFL Draft. It looks like his shoulder's fine now, at least.
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2.06 New Orleans Chocolate City - RB Charles Scott
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Quick, who was the most productive RB for the Chocolate City last year? If you said Darren Sproles, chances are, you cheated. But that just goes to show how much help New Orleans needs at running back. Charles Scott's 2008 stats look impressive, but they were inflated by games against Appalachian State, North Texas and Tulane. Outside of those three games, his ypc was 4.4 (and in the final four regular season games of '08, it was just 3.1). In 2009, he ended up sharing carries with Keiland Williams and Russell Shepard. Now he'll have to compete with LeSean McCoy and Mike Bell for touches.
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2.07 Cleveland Steamers - WR Eric Decker
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Cleveland finished last in a highly competitive AFC East last year, going 4-8 in their last 12 games. They should be better after snatching RB Jonathan Stewart and WR Robert Meachem from Green Bay in a trade for RBs Mike Bell and Marshawn Lynch. They have to be, because they won't be getting much help in this year's draft (having traded their first-rounder to Houston to get WR Jeremy Maclin last year).
The all-time leading receiver on the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Decker was the go-to guy on an offense that had a subpar running game. RotoWorld says he "projects as an impact, chain-moving, and potentially high-scoring possession receiver with a higher upside than Kevin Walter." But assuming the Broncos' top three receivers are Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney and fellow rookie Demaryius Thomas, then Decker will have to beat out veteran Brandon Stokley and second-year man Kenny McKinley for the #4 spot. And even that isn't likely because he's recovering from a Lisfranc sprain (he may be out until training camp). He may be their #2 down the road, but (as with many wide receivers) it'll take time and it won't happen this year.
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2.08 Arizona Outlaws - WR Damian Williams
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If it wasn't for RB Ronnie Brown getting hurt (again), this team might have won the NFC West instead of being out of the playoffs yet again.
"A guy who doesn't scream upside, but is productive, technically strong and should help quickly," says Mel Kiper of Damian Williams. In particular, as Mike Mayock of NFL Network has pointed out, Williams' greatest asset is his route running. By running precise patterns, Williams is able to get open despite average (4.53) speed. Sounds like a another possession receiver to me. But a good thing for Arizona is that the Outlaws already have Kenny Britt so Williams serves as a handcuff. As it is, Williams could become the #2 WR on the Titans, although he'll have to supplant Nate Washington and Justin Gage for that role. He'll also be used for punt and kick returns (which will allow Britt to concentrate on receiving).
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2.09 Detroit Vipers - WR Mike Williams
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Williams is "high-risk" because he missed 2008 due to academic problems and left the Syracuse football team last November (just two weeks before he left, he was suspended for a game due to a violation of team rules). But he's "high-reward" as well because he lands in a very good job situation in TB (see also Benn, Arrelious at 2.01) and has demonstrated a high level of talent. Also, here are the numbers he put up in just the first six games of 2009: 45 receptions, 712 yards, 6 TDs. "You have to have good leadership around him in order to keep the off-the-field trouble away. But if you can do that, I think he's the second most-talented wide receiver in this year's class... I love his instincts going up for the ball in traffic. I think he's got a chance to be a real playmaker," says ESPN's Todd McShay. He shot up my draft board after a great minicamp.
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2.10 Tennessee Taz Devils - RB LeGarrette Blount
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Blount burst onto the scene in 2008 for Oregon as a juco transfer, rushing for 1,002 yards and 17 TDs. But he has been a severe discipline case. For starters, he was a no-show for classes and a number of team meetings and was suspended for about a month in February 2009. Then, at the conclusion of the very first game of the season, he sucker-punched Boise State LB Byron Hout, then tried to go after hecklers in the crowd. And this, following a horrible performance (-5 yards on 8 carries) where he looked very slow and out of shape, and just about anyone else who had a game like that would have run, not walked, straight to the locker room. "In the matter of five minutes, Blount just went from second- or third-rounder to completely undraftable," an NFL scouting director said to ESPN's Todd McShay afterwards. And indeed, no NFL team drafted Blount. This may be the earliest an undrafted free agent has gone in the TUFF Draft.
I'm surprised Lonnie Daniel didn't take RB Joe McKnight (as a handcuff to Shonn Greene; he may not get much action behind Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson this year, but there's a chance that after LT2 hangs up the cleats, McKnight would be the change-of-pace back, and more importantly, Greene's backup). The main reasons Tennessee only gets a yellow "!" instead of a red "X" are that Blount's job situation is arguably better than McKnight's, and McKnight had, frankly, a rough minicamp (more on that at 2.14). Blount will battle Javon Ringer to be the #2 running back in Tennessee.
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2.11 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - TE Rob Gronkowski
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The Gronk missed 2009 due to a back injury. Well before that happened, Todd McShay said, "An NFL O-coordinator would be nuts not to use Gronkowski to create mismatches against linebackers. Plus, he's a solid blocker and a top-notch receiver." (75 catches, 1,197 yards and 16 TDs in 2007-08) As I mentioned in last year's Wrapup, college football doesn't make too many tight ends that both receive and block. New England also drafted Aaron Hernandez, another great receiving tight end, but in all likelihood, Gronkowski will be the regular in-line tight end at all times, with Hernandez in various other positions (H-back, slot receiver, fullback, wide receiver). In any case, even if he doesn't produce much, he'd still be a better backup for Antonio Gates than Dave Thomas (who's bound for the free agent scrap heap).
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2.12 Denver Devils - TE Aaron Hernandez
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Hernandez got to shine in 2009 after sitting behind Cornelius Ingram the previous two seasons. Without Ingram and WR Louis Murphy, Tebow threw to Hernandez more than any other Florida Gator receiver. As mentioned in the previous pick, Hernandez could be used in a fashion similar to how Frank Wycheck was used on the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans in the '90s. Heck, Hernandez is about the same size as Wycheck, too. Now, he has admitted to using marijuana, but you know that he's not going to turn his locker into a bong with Bill Belichick around.
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2.13 Dallas Junglehawgs - WR Andre Roberts
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With Anquan Boldin traded to the Ravens, Steve Breaston will assume the #2 WR job for the Arizona Cardinals. Roberts, one of the few players to ever get to the NFL from The Citadel, will get to battle 2008 draftee Early Doucet III for the #3 spot.
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2.14 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - RB Joe McKnight
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Due to Tampa Bay's lack of depth at running back, McKnight goes at this point. After dealing Leon Washington to Seattle, the New York Jets expected McKnight to be the Jets' new 3rd-down/change-of-pace back. But reports coming out of minicamp say McKnight has a long way to go to meet those expectations. "Every time I look around he's got a wet towel around his neck," said an annoyed coach Rex Ryan. "And then he's making one mistake after another." Longtime Jets beat writer Rich Cimini says McKnight may have maturity issues. Cimini also says Washington also had a rough time in his first minicamp as a Jet and was able to turn things around from there.
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2.15 Baltimore Brown Clowns - RB Anthony Dixon
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Tim Ozga's philosophy is to get as many potential starters as you can. And he's imagining a world where Dixon first surpasses 49ers teammate Glen Coffee on the depth chart, then starts after Frank Gore gets hurt. It helps that Gore and Coffee are on Baltimore's division rival, the Indianapolis Hoosier Daddy's.
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2.16 Dallas Junglehawgs - RB Deji Karim
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Karim racked up 1,694 yards (tops in the Football Championship Subdivision) and 18 touchdowns on 240 carries at Southern Illinois in 2009. One reason is the lower level of competition he played against; the other is his speed (he ran a 4.37 40 at his pro day). He missed the 2008 season with a torn patellar tendon. Jaguars GM Gene Smith figures to use him as a 3rd-down back and kickoff returner.
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3.01 Baltimore Brown Clowns - WR Emmanuel Sanders
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Sanders could be the biggest steal of this draft. Why? Here's the Pittsburgh Steelers' wide receiver situation:
- Hines Ward is 34 and not many wide receivers produce beyond that age.
- Santonio Holmes was traded to the Jets.
- And 2008 2nd-rounder Limas Sweed just ruptured his Achilles' so his 2010 season is toast.
Sure, Sanders will still have to compete with Antwaan Randle El and Arnaz Battle for playing time, and you can argue that his stats were the product of the spread offense June Jones installed at Southern Methodist, but he's comparable to Holmes in a number of ways (first and foremost, speed; also body control and the ability to make tough catches). Here's a bit of trivia: He's also the first offensive position player to be drafted out of SMU since the "death penalty" the NCAA handed down to that program in 1987.
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3.02 Carolina Convicts - TE Ed Dickson
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Dickson has a chance at being the Ravens' tight end of the future, replacing Todd Heap, who (when healthy) was one of the best tight ends the NFL had to offer but is nearing the end of the line (not to mention entering the final year of his contract). While the Convicts already have Kevin Boss and Ben Watson at tight end, Dickson could (theoretically, and only then in the long run) be an upgrade over Watson. For one thing, Watson is now part of the Cleveland Browns' anemic offense. Dickson will have to compete with BYU's Dennis Pitta for that title, "Ravens' tight end of the future," but if you only take draft position into account, Dickson's the favorite.
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3.03 San Diego Slewage - TE Jimmy Graham
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Graham is a former college basketball player who perhaps could take over from 11th-year veteran Jeremy Shockey in New Orleans down the road... but he's a very raw prospect at this point (he only played one year at tight end for "The U"). Mel Kiper on Graham: "Inconsistent catching the ball, not a natural pass-catcher, blocking needs a lot of work." I think what San Diego really wishes is that Ed Dickson had dropped to this point (he would have been a handcuff for long-time Slewage TE Todd Heap).
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3.04 Dallas Junglehawgs - WR Jordan Shipley
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Shipley starred for the Longhorns in 2008 and 2009 (a whopping 205 receptions for over 2,500 yards and 24 touchdowns in those two years combined). He will be 25 in December (he missed 2004 and 2005 with leg injuries). He will compete with WR Andre Caldwell for the Bengals' #3 WR job (behind Chad Ochocinco and Antonio Bryant).
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3.05 Green Bay Ground Hogs - WR Riley Cooper
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After hardly producing in 2006-08 (because he had Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy in front of him in those years), Cooper took advantage of his opportunity in 2009 with 961 yards and 8 touchdowns on 51 receptions. With the Eagles, he, along with Jason Avant and Hank Baskett, will be the Eagles' #3-#5 receivers (not necessarily in that order). Here's a scouting report courtesy of SI.com's Tony Pauline.
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3.06 New Orleans Chocolate City - RB Keiland Williams
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At 5'11", 233 lb., his strength will be inside running. He always took a back seat in LSU's running back corps, first to Jacob Hester, and then when Hester left, Charles Scott claimed the lion's share of carries. On April 28, he joined Mike Shanahan's new running back committee in Washington, and we all know how Shanahan gives us fits anyone can prosper in a Shanahan running attack.
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3.07 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - QB Jonathan Crompton
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There's a chance Crompton could replace Billy Volek as Philip Rivers' backup in San Diego. But I don't know why the Chargers took him over Dan LeFevour and Tony Pike. Crompton has had flashes of brilliance (like in games against Georgia and Memphis last year when he completed over 70% of his passes) and really bad games (like against UCLA and Florida, also last year--no TDs and a combined 5 INTs in those games). He only started one full season in college (he was benched in 2008 after a particularly awful game against Auburn) and never completed 60% of his passes in any one season. But Sigmund Bloom of footballguys.com says, "Crompton is one of the higher upside developmental QBs in the draft, and you have to like that he landed in an organization that did enough with Charlie Whitehurst to turn him into another team's hope at the position."
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3.08 Arizona Outlaws - TE Tony Moeaki
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Moeaki (pronounced MOE-ee-AH-kee) lands in a very good job situation in Kansas City, where his only competition is injury-prone Brad Cottam and error-prone Leonard Pope. Thing is, Moeaki is injury-prone himself. It took him all of five seasons to amass 76 receptions, 953 yards and 11 touchdowns, and missed multiple games in all five seasons. A few tight ends can put up those numbers in just one season.
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3.09 Detroit Vipers - TE Dennis Pitta
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I mistakenly expected Aaron Hernandez to fall to this pick, but what the heck, I'll take the tight end who went right after Hernandez in the NFL Draft, and who has the following things in common with Hernandez:
- The team that drafted him took a tight end on Day 2 of that draft
- He fell to Round 4 because of some overblown "red flag" (in Pitta's case, it's age--he's almost 25 because he had to serve 2 years on a Mormon mission)
- He can be used as an H-back.
Mel Kiper, however, doesn't think the age is a red flag at all. He says (per this blog entry from the Ravens' official web site) that Pitta may actually be more ready than Ed Dickson to contribute to the Ravens. Another possible reason why Pitta may be more ready than Dickson that Kiper didn't mention: Dickson scored a 10 on the Wonderlic test, and it wasn't even the first time he took it (he scored a 5 in March 2009), leading to concerns about his ability to digest an NFL playbook; by contrast, Pitta scored a 29.
Besides, I could use a little more insurance at tight end after what happened to Brandon Pettigrew, my first round pick last year, over the last six months: First a torn knee, then the Lions traded for Tony Scheffler.
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3.10 Baltimore Brown Clowns - QB John Skelton
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Evidently Baltimore has never believed in handcuffing; otherwise they might have considered Dan LeFevour (drafted by Da Bearsss and the early favorite to be Jay Cutler's backup). Tim Ozga, instead, is thinking of a world where Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson both stink up the joint and Skelton takes over in 2011. Skelton has great arm strength--his Scouts, Inc. scouting report says "Absolute howitzer for an arm. Can make all the NFL throws and more." But for now, he's taxi squad material because he worked almost exclusively in a shotgun spread offense while at Fordham.
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3.11 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - QB Dan LeFevour
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He's got size (6'3", 223 lb.), mobility and a good touch, but will have to transition from the spread offense to the NFL. There are two players in the history of college football to pass for 20 TDs and run for 20 TDs in the same season. One is Tim Tebow (taken by Tampa Bay at 1.12); the other is LeFevour. Working with pass-happy OC Mike Martz could be a blessing (although it didn't turn out that way for Drew Stanton three years ago).
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3.12 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - QB Tony Pike
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The Meat Goats continue to stock up on quarterbacks, perhaps to use them as trade bait later. Pike's 6'6", 225-lb. frame made NFL scouts write his name down. His improvement since becoming the Cincinnati Bearcats' starter ensured that those scouts did not cross it off. But his thin build, throwing motion and spending 3 years in the shotgun formation are possible reasons why he fell to Round 6 in the Draft; he didn't have a very good Senior Bowl week and he also looked "very raw" in the Panthers' rookie minicamp.
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3.13 Indy Hoosier Daddy's - QB Rusty Smith 
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Indy tried to sell this pick. Tennessee had said earlier in the draft (after they had moved up in Round 2 to get LeGarrette Blount) that they were interested in "buying back in". But something didn't click. So (after eight hours of nothing) Indy just took this guy out of Florida Atlantic. Rusty Smith is a developmental prospect at this point, less said the better. Had Mark and Joe been able to get in touch with each other, might they have been able to reach a deal with Lonnie? Or could they have found and taken a better player on the board? The world may never know...
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3.14 Minnesota Fats - WR Kerry Meier
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This blog entry by ESPN's Pat Yasinskas compares Meier to Falcons receiver Brian Finneran. Finneran had one really productive season (2002) and was otherwise a reserve possession receiver. Meier's 40yd speed (4.66) suggest he's also going to be a reserve possession receiver. It's a late third-rounder in a shallow draft so I can't be too harsh, but... Yawn... Moving right along...
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3.15 Dallas Junglehawgs - WR Carlton Mitchell
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Now this is the kind of pick you make at this stage of the draft--someone with some upside. He's raw--a converted track star--and came out of school a year early despite not ever having 1,000 yards or more than 4 TDs in any one season. He's got a good blend of size (6'4", 212 lb.) and speed (4.56). If he just catches the ball with his hands instead of his chest, and does so consistently, he'd be more of a big-play threat than the guys the Browns drafted last year (Brian Robiskie and Mohammed Massaquoi, both of whom are possession receivers).
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3.16 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - PK Brett Swenson
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Is this what the draft's coming to, taking handcuff picks from division rivals? First Anthony Dixon, now this. Swenson's got the leg, although he hasn't had many opportunities to demonstrate it--he booted two 50-yarders in a win over Purdue last year--and his competition at the moment is Adam Vinatieri, who only played in six games last season due to a knee injury.
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4.01 Houston Tethered Swimmers - QB Jarrett Brown
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Brown was a stronger-armed passer than Pat White, but he had to sit behind him for a few years. This is an interesting pick; yes, Alex Smith and David Carr are ahead of him but both become free agents after 2010. Never mind that if Smith doesn't show more consistency, the Niners would just as soon start scouting Jake Locker and Andrew Luck.
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4.02 Carolina Convicts - QB Mike Kafka
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Handcuff to Kevin Kolb. Probably the best pick of this round. Kafka has described himself more as a "game manager"--someone who won't make too many mistakes--and that sounds like a backup quarterback, but there's no guarantee that Kolb, who's entering his first full season as a starting quarterback, will keep on performing like he did when he subbed for Donovan McNabb last year.
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4.03 Houston Tethered Swimmers - WR Marcus Easley
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Let's see, Terrell Owens left Buffalo, the Bills have little WR depth outside of Lee Evans, and they didn't take a wide receiver until this took this guy in Round 4. Easley only had one full season in college (893 yards/8 touchdowns last year). I'll just copy-and-paste from ESPN.com's DraftTracker: "Easley has a nice blend of height and top-end straight-line speed. That said, he is a bit tight in the hips and his lower body is going to struggle to run the complete route tree. He is, however, a very strong runner after the catch with the acceleration to outrun defenders' angles in finding a crease."
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4.04 Tennessee Taz Devils - TE Garrett Graham
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Indy failed to sell Tennessee the 3.13, but the Taz were able to buy this pick from Dallas for a whopping 25 TUFFs. Graham is the latest in a recent line of productive Wisconsin TEs (Owen Daniels and Travis Beckum are the previous two).
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4.05 San Diego Slewage - QB Levi Brown
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Hmmm... As with Jarrett Brown (no relation), Levi Brown lands in a job situation is that relatively good now, but the Bills could also be in the catbird seat for Jake Locker or Andrew Luck come next April.
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4.06 Green Bay Ground Hogs - TE Anthony McCoy
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McCoy was considered one of the better tight ends, up until a few days before the draft. Then, it was revealed that he tested positive for marijuana at the combine. He fell all the way to Round 6 and into a less-than-favorable job situation (backing up John Carlson in Seattle). At least McCoy's reunited with his college coach, Pete Carroll.
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4.07 Cleveland Steamers - No Pick
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With the auto-draft feature, there shouldn't be any missed picks. For Pete's sake...
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4.08 Arizona Outlaws - WR Armanti Edwards
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Antwaan Randle El, Josh Cribbs and Brad Smith all successfully made the transition from college quarterback to wide receiver in the pros, and I'm confident Edwards will the next to do so. Edwards can be a Wildcat QB as well as a slot receiver and kick returner, and has both the athleticism and "football IQ" to pull it off. The Carolina Panthers traded their 2011 2nd-round pick to get Edwards, the quarterback who led Appalachian State to one of the biggest upsets in college football history, in Round 3 of the NFL Draft. If the Panthers' scouts are right, this is one serious value pick (hence the green check mark).
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4.09 Detroit Vipers - WR Jacoby Ford
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I was hoping to get Edwards but that didn't happen, so I figured I might as well take the fastest player at the Combine. Ford's college stats aren't eye-popping but Clemson's offense favored the run (not that you could blame them with C.J. Spiller as their feature back). Ford has been compared to Ted Ginn Jr. in terms of size as well as speed. He'll need to improve on route-running if he wants to be more than a kick returner and slot receiver. Durability (broken ankle, 2007; pulled hamstring, 2009) could be an issue. Al Davis has a history of drafting speedy players that don't work out; if Ford should end up on that list, no big loss.
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4.10 Baltimore Brown Clowns - WR Dezmon Briscoe
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Most likely a possession receiver, Briscoe lands in a crowded WR corps in Cincinnati (the Bengals added Antonio Bryant via free agency and also drafted Jordan Shipley in Round 3). Tim thought of selling the pick, then selling Briscoe after using the pick, then (after Tommy went silly by lowering his offer from 10 TUFFs by counting down 1 TUFF at a time), decided to just not do anything and let Todd drop Briscoe from his roster. Really silly stuff.
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4.11 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - RB Joique Bell
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He's only the fourth player in Division II history to post two 2,000-yard seasons. But he just doesn't have the speed to play in the NFL. "Jerry Rice and Walter Payton ran slow 40 times too," Bell said. Yes, but NFL defenses weren't as fast then. Sorry you were born 25 years too late. Here's the TUFF board game as a parting gift. NEXT!
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4.12 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - PK Leigh Tiffin
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Another of the top kickers in this year's draft class, Tiffin was expected to be drafted late by a team with a questionable kicking situation like the Ravens or the Bengals. That didn't happen. The Ravens are sticking with Billy Cundiff (and have been rumored to be interested in Shayne Graham); the Bengals signed Dave Rayner and Mike Nugent. The Meat Goats take him here due to their unstable kicking situation (it so happens Graham is on their roster). Tiffin signed with the Cleveland Browns and will compete with 11-year veteran Phil Dawson on that team.
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4.13 Indianapolis Hoosier Daddy's - No Pick
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Indy tried to sell the pick for 15 TUFFs. Then 10. No takers. They should have just selected some jabroni and then tried to sell him like Baltimore tried with Briscoe.
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4.14 Minnesota Fats - WR Kyle Williams
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Kick returner. 4.43 speed. 57 receptions, 815 yards and 8 TDs. Like the similarly-sized Ford (4.08), he's most likely to be a slot receiver/kick returner. Two more picks to go...
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4.15 New Orleans Chocolate City - RB Keith Toston
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Despite Steven Jackson's recent injuries, the Rams didn't draft a running back in 2010, meaning their backups at the moment are Kenneth Darby, Chris Ogbonnaya and this guy. Toston (pronounced TOAST-un), like Ogbonnaya, got his day in the sun when Oklahoma State's All-America starting RB, Kendall Hunter, suffered an ankle injury. Like Ogbonnaya and Vernand Morency before him, he got inflated numbers at the expense of soft Big 12 defenses. Next time you're spreading something on your bagel, that's not cream cheese, that's the Iowa State run defense. Besides, the other NFL teams will cut players--both in June and at the end of training camp--and the Rams will probably end up signing a castoff running back (maybe the Seahawks cut Julius Jones? maybe the Redskins cut Larry Johnson?).
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4.16 New Orleans Chocolate City - TE Fendi Onobun
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Like Jimmy Graham, Onobun is also a converted college basketball player. He'll be competing with Daniel Fells and Mick Hoomanawanui for the St. Louis Rams' tight end job. How productive was he in college? 2 receptions, 33 yards, 1 touchdown, that's it. The Rams drafted him--over running backs like Anthony Dixon, Jonathan Dwyer and James Stark--based on his size/speed combo (6'6", 252 lb, and he ran a 4.49 40 in a private workout). Tommy likes to say his name. Personally, I like to say, "I'm Mick Hoomana-wana-nui/We're the Royal Macadamia Nuts!/I'm Mick Hoomana-wana-nui/We're the Royal Macadamia Nuts!" (I'm parodying this song from an episode of the U.S. version of Life On Mars.) Oh yeah!
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